A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."